LIFE+09 PROJECT ENV/CY/000252


Historical data were collected and validated and were analysed through the modelling system. The meteorological model was also implemented. Initial analysis was undertaken in order to examine relationships between meteorological conditions and pollutant concentrations. This Action was completed on 30/9/2011.

DLI and ACC have prepared the dust sampling/monitoring plan which was based and built on the existing monitoring activities of the DLI but targeted to the requirements of the project rather than the general monitoring requirements of the DLI’s Air Quality Unit.
In particular, the plan aimed to facilitate the interpretation of the results with regard to source apportionments and source identification. For this reason, land uses surrounding the selected monitoring stations were determined. In addition, meteorological conditions and boundary conditions pertaining to PM10 fluxes from trans-boundary transfer were considered at the latest stages of analysis.
2500 samples were collected and analyzed which far exceeds the minimum number of 200 that was foreseen in the project proposal.
An important conclusion of the study is that up to 40% of PM10 measured in rural areas can occur due to dust transported from the arid areas of the Sahara and Saudi Arabia, while a similar contribution may be expected from Turkey and Eastern Europe. While the level of PM10 contributions per event originating in Europe are smaller than those originating in the Sahara, such events may be more frequent and thus also important contributors to the overall air quality. When also considering the contribution of sea-salt, the percentage of natural sources to the total PM10 mass at remote areas can exceed 50%. These results are important for evaluating the level of exceedances of PM10 concentrations in Cyprus as per the EU regulatory limits. They are, however, also critical in determining the level and sources of PM10 that can effectively be managed through national dust control measures.

Satellite images were obtained and a methodology was established to assess and verify local emission sources using satellite imagery. Land use/cover maps were produced for each city as well as for the whole area of interest. Correlations between PM10 station measurements and AOT ground measurements were conducted. GIS shape files were collected from the Geological Survey Department and the Public Works Department of the mines and quarries, open construction sites and unpaved roads.

The results included the high-resolution dynamic (hourly) emission data sets for particulates, for the 4,800 by 4,800 km master model domain and the nested 270 by 270 km matrix (national scale), validated by remote sensing data. These emission data of natural dust contributions (daily forecasts together with the traditional emission inventory, see below) provided the inputs for the continuous now casting and forecasting of air quality (compliance monitoring).

Regional (long range transport) and national scale modelling consists of a “cascade of nested models (MM5 meteorological forecasts, DUST entrainment, pyrogenic (combustion generated) emission modelling (temporal patterns), and finally the CAMx fate and transport modelling. The model system provides the basis for scenario analysis) extreme events, identifying local versus long-range transport, and natural versus anthropogenic contributions) and the optimization of national emission control measures (Action 7), that were the basis for the dust management plan (Action 8).

Within the project’s framework, AUTH was responsible for the street scale modelling part of an integrated modelling system, which was developed in order to be used for the assessment of the contribution of different sources in PM levels inside street canyons, as well as for the analysis of different emission scenarios. More specifically, in ACTION 06 of the project AUTH was in charge for the quantification of local anthropogenic contributions to the hotspot PM concentrations inside urban areas.
In this direction, one of the principal aims of this study was to provide an estimate of the street scale increment for PM, i.e. the contribution of local scale (mainly traffic) emissions and, importantly, PM resuspension to the levels of PM concentrations at urban hotspots. For this purpose, the street scale air quality model OSPM (Berkowicz, 2000), was applied in order to describe the particulate pollution levels at street scale, as well as to describe the processes that govern the distribution of the pollutants inside typical Cypriot street canyons.
Although only a few cases of Cypriot streets could strictly be classified as street canyons, it was important to investigate the upper levels of the street scale contribution for certain cases of streets where street geometry is clearly unfavourable for the dispersion of pollutants. Besides, a factor which decisively affects dispersion characteristics inside street canyons and, thus, dictates the levels of the street scale increment is meteorology, most importantly wind speed and direction. For this reason, the impact of different meteorological conditions observed during recent years on the PM street scale increments was also explored.
In order to make an accurate choice with respect to the representativity of the locations where the street scale application would take place, as a first selection of areas was conducted. Based on existing traffic data which were combined with information on street geometry, a first set of possible locations for the street scale model application in each one of the four major cities of Cyprus was compiled. These hotspots are characterized by high activity levels, as they are located close to or within the economic centres of each city. In the second stage of the selection process, two particular road segments, one in Makariou Ave. (Nicosia) and one in Afxediou Ave. (Larnaca), were chosen for the street scale application, as the geometric and traffic characteristics of these sites led to the conclusion that they constitute typical Cypriot hot spots and, therefore bear the characteristics of a worst case scenarios in this project’s framework.
Based on street scale model applications, we were able to estimate an upper limit for the street scale increment regarding PM and NO2. Due to the fact that both Makariou and Afxediou avenues are not typical street canyons along their whole length, these are the upper limits for street level concentrations where multi storey buildings are present on both sides of the road. Nevertheless, it is clearly evident that pollutant levels inside street canyons can be significantly higher than the urban background, thus presenting more challenges as regards the attainment of the Air Quality Directive limit values. Last but not least, it was also ascertained that during unfavourable wind conditions the dispersion of air pollutants is inhibited which leads to increased concentrations at the street level.

The “preference structure” (i.e. criteria, objectives, constraints) for the optimization was completed in March, 2012. The database structure and interface for emission control policies and technologies (sectoral applicability, investment, operating costs and emission reduction efficiencies) were implemented on-line for a final set of 462 technology profiles with the addition or refinement of new specific local emission control technology profiles and stakeholder preferences was continued until August 2013. In addition the model based optimisation tools for the design and selection of cost efficient emission control strategies was set up and implemented in combination with the multi-criteria evaluation and selection (DSS, decision support system) of alternative strategies. This action was extended with the availability of new technology and preference data until October 2013.
More than 5,000 pareto-optimal solutions were generated from several scenarios with generic or Cyprus specific technologies. Non-dominated solutions ranged from 5-25 % of all alternatives generated. For the efficient solutions (closest to utopia), emission reduction between 12 and 32% of the total for the Cyprus domain (natural plus pyrogenic) were achieved in the optimization. Economic efficiencies within the technologically feasible and (most likely) political acceptable ranges averaged from 500,000 to 1 million euro per year for each g/s particulate emission reduction ranges.

Action was started, according to the initially proposed plan, in January 2013. Specification of maximum source specific emission reduction targets was continued to May 2013, based on the optimization scenarios generated and analyzed (Action 7). The ranges of feasible (technical feasibility, economically efficient, politically (stakeholder) acceptable) and the identification of pareto-optimal solutions was continuously updated with the associated optimization scenarios until October 2013.
The pareto-optimal solutions average potential local emission reductions of a round 12-32 %, depending on the setting of secondary constraints, given on average one monthly major long-distance transport event, and at least 50 minor background/import events (largely from the N to NE), and an average regional “background” below 5 μg/m3, this would result in an improved compliance (from the long-term average baseline: depending on the station and year from as few as less than 10 to more than 200 daily exceedances/year vis a vis the regulatory target of less than 35 violations) of 10-25% for the local contribution to exceedances not attributable to long-range transport . Please note that any such estimates are probabilistic, depending on the considerable inter-annual variability of the weather, but primarily on economic constraints.

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Dissemination

Date

Target Audience

1

Fileleftheros newspaper (35.000 copies)

15 May 2011

General public

2

Politis newspaper (20.000 copies)

28 May 2011

General public

3

Simerini newspaper (3.000 copies)

18 May 2011

General public

4

Cyprus Scientific and Technical Chamber Bulletin (12.000 copies)

September 2011

Technical and Scientific audience

5

Larnaka and sustainable mobility, Municipality of Larnaka (mobility week).

21 September 2011

General public

6

11th Conference of Chemistry Cyprus-Greece, Limassol

26-30 October 2011

Technical and Scientific audience

7

Workshop for the adaptation to the climatic change, Department of Environment

2-3 November 2011

Technical audience

8

Simerini newspaper (16.000 copies)

27 November 2011

General public

9

Simerini newspaper (3.000 copies)

21 December 2011

General public

10

Climatic change and air quality in Cyprus, University of Cyprus.

22 December 2011

Technical and Scientific audience

11

Fileleftheros newspaper (55.000 copies)

14 April 2012

General public

12

Interview in Cyprus Broadcasting Corporation

19 April 2012

General public

13

Air quality in Cyprus, Cyprus Institute

20 April 2012

Technical and Scientific audience

14

Kathimerini newspaper

29 April 2012

General public

15

Workshop Climate Change and Public Health, Department of Environment

28 September 2012

Technical and Scientific audience

16

PASYDY-public workers’ organisation newspaper (20.000 copies)

21 November 2012

Technical audience

17 Daily workshop on “Climate change and public health” organised by the University of Nicosia September 2012 Technical and Scientific audience
18 PASYDY, Pancyprian Public Employees Trade Union, newspaper “Δημόσιος Υπάλληλος (50.000 public officers) 21 of November 2012 Technical audience
19 Cyprus Scientific and Technical Chamber Bulletin (12.000 copies) January 2013 Technical and Scientific audience
20 RSCy 2013 conference (Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of Environment) Pafos, Cyprus (http://www.cyprusremotesensing.com/rscy2013/) 8-10 April 2013 Technical and Scientific audience
21 RSCy 2013 Conference Proceedings. 16 September 2013 Technical and Scientific audience
22 European Mobility Week 16 – 22 September 2013 General public


A management and monitoring structure was agreed and a monitoring protocol was prepared at the initial stages of the project. Monitoring consists of the evaluation of progress in achieving the foreseen milestones, deliverables and Task Activities. Monitoring was thus done by comparing actual to foreseen achievements, where both timely delivery and quality of the deliverable were evaluated. A standardised evaluation system was applied.

The After Life Communication Plan was prepared in month 36. The tools and methods developed and tested, and the know-how and capabilities developed for and by the main beneficiary enables MLWSI/DLI as main beneficiary and also the competent authority for the implementation of the air quality framework directive 2008/50/EC to use the developed methods and tools on an operational basis as part of its routine operation on air quality assessment and management. For this purpose, DLI will have to use the expertise of expert modellers from Cyprus Meteorology Service.
A second alternative is for DLI to connect the model developed by the project with the existing DLI’s software. It is noted that the DLI has already installed and applied the relevant software as well as conducted its first complete emission inventory which feeds the models. These are used in combination with a monitoring network to produce up to date information on air quality as well as for now-casting, forecasting and scenario analysis applications.
A third alternative is to contract ESS to supply continuous support for the modelling. As long as DLI supply the necessary information and data, DLI could sign a contract with ESS for the update and run of the modelling software in an annual basis. The resources required for continuing the routine operation of the methods and tools of PM3 will be part of the operational budget of MLWSI/DLI for air quality assessment and management under 2008/50/EC. As already mentioned the DLI is implementing monitoring and modelling activities as well as prepares annual air quality management plans. The project deliverables and foreseen future activities will be incorporated within the current responsibilities. Thus both the capacities and resources for this purpose are secured.
A forth alternative is for DLI to engage to a new LIFE project with partners from Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Lebanon, Israel, with which DLI keeps very good relationship, to implement a project using the existing capabilities developed by the PM3 project.
Eventually, it should be noted that DLI’s monitoring stations will continue to operate with National Funds.

This project is supported by the European Commission under the LIFE+ Environment and Governance Programme.

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